Philo Blog

Welcome to Philo Capital Advisers' Blog on portfolio construction and management issues. We welcome your comments and feedback.

  • Home
    Home This is where you can find all the blog posts throughout the site.
  • Categories
    Categories Displays a list of categories from this blog.
  • Bloggers
    Bloggers Search for your favorite blogger from this site.
Recent blog posts

In last week's piece we looked at how falling cash rates are fuelling the search for yield, as at current rates even wealthy retirees who have amassed $1 million in a superannuation face a very meagre retirement if they are looking to live off their income rather than eat into their capital. Whilst the 2.6% rate on term deposits in Australia looks grim, spare a thought for retirees in the US who are currently being offered 0.2% for the same term from Citibank, or German investors also receiving 0.2% from Deutsche Bank! In this week's piece we are going to look at why dividends are important, and the dividend sustainability and growth factors that we look for in a security.

...
Hits: 1019
0

Last week the RBA cut their target cash rate to 2.25% in an effort to boost consumer and business confidence and arrest growth in the unemployment rate. Whilst this move was positive for equity investors – and saw the ASX hit a six and a half year high as well as the domestic housing market – it was a negative for savers, especially retirees living off the income generated by their term deposits. On Monday ANZ cut its one year TD rate to 2.6% and with the inflation rate for 2014 running at 2.5%, savers are receiving close to a zero percent real return (after inflation) on their term deposits.

...
Hits: 945
0

After over four years of relatively stable global oil prices the price of oil per barrel (the equivalent of 159 litres) has more than halved since June 2014. Whilst this has placed a significant amount of stress on oil producers and in particular companies such as Santos that are constructing large projects that require a high oil price to generate commercial returns, the dramatic fall, if sustained, will have positive impacts for investors. In this week's piece we are going to look at the beneficiaries of the decline in hydrocarbon prices.

...
Hits: 1051
0

In forecasting the future, especially the future direction of the equity markets, one prediction is sure to come true: that all predictions will be wrong. In the final Tales of the Trenches for 2014, the Philo Listed Research team provides a view of how we expect the Australian equity markets to perform over the next twelve months. This does not involve peering into a crystal ball or gazing at tea leaves and chicken entrails, but rather is derived by analysing the ASX on a "bottom up" or stock by stock basis. Whilst recognising the limitations of all forecasts, in this week's piece we are going to run through our current view on the returns we expect Australian equity investors to enjoy over the next 12 months.

...
Hits: 1133

Over the last twelve months, listed property has been the "quiet achiever" in most investors' portfolios. Whilst Australian equities have faced concerns about a rising and then falling AUD, falling commodity prices, global growth and a financial system inquiry, listed property has sailed under the radar and the index has posted a total return of +28% over the past 12 months bettering equities by 20%! In this note we will look at what is going on in listed property together with our positioning in the various property sectors.

...
Hits: 974
0

The "Dogs of the Dow" is an investment strategy that is based on buying the ten worst performing or highest yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at the beginning of the year. The strategy then sells these stocks at the end of the year and then buys the ten worst performers from the year that has just finished. Following energy titan Santos' 30% fall over the last five trading days (which wiped A$3.5 billion off its market capitalisation), in this week's piece we are going to look at the "dogs" of the ASX focusing in on large capitalisation Australian companies with falling share prices.

...
Hits: 5017
0

Funds management and in particular the vertical integration of advice, administration and management has generated much debate this week, with the government's plans to wind back some of the investor protections in Labor's Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) being strangled in the senate. In this week's piece we are not going to debate the merits of requiring financial advisers to act in their clients' best interests nor conflicted payments and fee disclosures. This week we are going to have a closer look at the funds management landscape in Australia, and in particular the dominance by the largest players of this A$1.9 trillion industry.

...
Hits: 3730
0

In part A of this article (available on the Philo website) we provided an overview of the key characteristics of managed accounts and the different forms of managed accounts in the market. In this article we pose some questions that, when answered, should assist planning firms to select the right managed account for them. We also provide a link to Part B of our more detailed paper called Understanding and Selecting Managed accounts. The detailed paper provides more education on the legal framework surrounding managed accounts and identifies scenarios where managed accounts and unit trusts can complement each other.

...
Hits: 1328
0

Since late 2011 Australian investors have seen one year term deposit rates compress from 6% to 3.2%, as bank competition for deposits continued to decline. For investors funding their retirements from the income produced by their portfolios this is clearly a concern. As the inflation rate is currently 3%, Australian investors are now practically getting a zero real return from investing in term deposits. Whilst this looks bleak, spare a thought for European retirees who are currently receiving 0.1% for short term deposits and soon face the prospect of negative yields with European Central Bank money printing! One of the key goals of the Core Equity Portfolio is to provide a sustainable (and franked) dividend yield that is higher than the ASX 200, but we are often asked about the possibility of "juicing up" the yield of the portfolio. In this piece we are going to look at the results from simply investing in the highest yielding equities at three different points in time.

...
Hits: 1138
0

Over the last eight days we have been digesting multi-billion dollar profit results for the major trading banks and listening to bank CEOs and CFOs commenting on their profit results. In aggregate the four major banks generated $28.6 billion in cash profits over the 2014 financial year, which represented an increase of 5% on the previous year. In this piece we are going to look at the common themes arising out of the results, differentiate between the banks and hand out our reporting season awards to the stocks that comprise a large weighting in most investors' Australian equity portfolios. The large overall size of bank profits reflects that their core business of transforming savings into lending as loans to borrowers remains a very profitable task. Indeed over the past decade (inclusive of the GFC) the big four banks have generated approximately $200 billion in profits after tax.

...
Hits: 1254
0

Earlier this week Medibank Private released a 200 page prospectus for what will be the largest Federal Government privatisation since the T3 Telstra share float in 2006. Medibank will also be the largest government enterprise to be taken private since the $4.6 billion sale of Queensland rail freight company QR National in 2010. As tens of thousands of words have been written about Medibank this week in the media and by the investment banks, we are not going to add to the debate but rather look at previous privatisations and how they have performed.

...
Hits: 1090
0

Assessing future prospects for the major banks is currently one of the biggest issues facing all Australian equity fund managers. Aside from employing over 200,000 Australians and touching every sector of the Australian economy, the four major banks plus the two regionals comprise 32% of the ASX100 and four of the five largest stocks listed on the ASX with a combined market value of A$400 billion. After several years of delivering strong profit and dividend growth, primarily due to the tailwind of declining bad debt charges, all bank share prices have been sold off aggressively (down -6%) over the past month. This fall can be attributed to investor concerns that the banks will face higher capital requirements post the upcoming Murray Financial System Inquiry, as well selling from foreign investors due to a sharp fall in the AUD. In this piece we are going to look at the causes of this correction and some thoughts for the future.

...
Hits: 1117
0

When the Hawke government came into power in 1983 one of their first decisions was to float the Australian dollar, assuming that this action would cause the AUD to fall and improve our international competitiveness. Before 1983, the value of the AUD was set each day by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Government. Since then large movements in the Australian dollar are often presented in the press as a vote of confidence in Australia as a nation. A falling Australian dollar is often viewed as a negative event, raising the cost of online purchases, imported flat screen TVs and skiing holidays in Colorado.

...
Hits: 1177
0

Every few months the financial press publish articles lauding the best performing equity fund managers over the previous 12 month period; generally accompanied by a picture of the manager looking responsible in an expensive suit and a post-match account of which stocks they held that caused them to outperform their peers and win on the day. Underlying these articles is the assumption that all equity funds are managed using the same principles and that a manager's outperformance is solely due to their skill. In reality the underlying investment philosophy or style is normally a major factor in determining performance. Last week's piece looked at the four basic investment styles (index, growth, value and quality) and in this second piece we are going to look at the market conditions under which each style tends to outperform.

...
Hits: 1131
0

Managed Accounts have been accelerating in popularity in the past few years with FUM estimated at over $15 billion and there is much industry anticipation that their rate of growth will accelerate further. Despite this increasing popularity and anticipation, general industry knowledge levels around managed accounts are relatively low.  In this brief article we provide an overview of what managed accounts are and where different forms of managed account sit in the regulatory framework.  We also provide a link to Part A of a more detailed paper we have produced called Understanding & Selecting Managed Accounts.

...
Hits: 4763
0

Investors looking for a professionally managed Australian equity portfolio face a vast array of options. At last count Morningstar tracks 120 different institutional fund managers delivering Australian Equity portfolios and this number expands further when you include model portfolios and stock lists offered by stock-brokers, asset consultants and investment newsletters. The individual stocks in this enormous range of portfolios are selected and then blended into Australian equity portfolios based on a range of investment philosophies or investment styles. In this piece we are going to look at the different investment styles used to manage equity portfolios and the foundations upon which these styles are built.

...
Hits: 1173
0

During the months of February and August the majority of Australian listed companies reveal their profit results and generally provide guidance as to how they expect their businesses to perform in the upcoming year. Whilst we regularly meet with companies between reporting periods to gauge how their businesses are performing, during semi-annual reporting season companies fully open up their car bonnets to let investors have a detailed look at the company's financials. Until this happens, investors don't know for certain whether they are going to find burning oil and hissing snakes or see that the company's growth engine is running to expectations.

...
Hits: 1303
0

On Tuesday night BHP's management confirmed that they are looking at simplifying their portfolio and investigating a demerger of the company's smaller minerals businesses. This proved to be unpopular with shareholders who were expecting a capital return, especially the company's London-domiciled BHP plc shareholders. In this week's piece we are going to look at the rationale behind this move, together with some divisional spin-offs conducted by BHP over the years.

...
Hits: 1302
0

Normally when a company announces a significant acquisition or major new investment it is trumpeted as a company-changing event that will dramatically boost earnings or change market perceptions of a company, both of which should be beneficial for shareholders. Whilst the valuation or market capitalisation of a company listed on the ASX can vary dramatically with market sentiment, in reality a company's business normally changes quite slowly and often the company-changing investment can actually be negative. In this piece we are going to look at recent company changing events that were both positive and negative for shareholders, along with a potentially company-changing event for a company we own in the Core Equity Portfolio; Origin Energy's APLNG project.

...
Hits: 1283
0

Last week Philo Research went to visit ANZ Bank's Asian platform. The purpose of this visit was to consider the bank's super regional strategy in detail as this differentiates ANZ from its domestic peers. In this piece we review ANZ Bank's Asian strategy and how investors will profit from it.

...
Hits: 5018
0

Last Tuesday private hospital operator Healthscope was listed on the ASX with a market capitalisation of $3.6 billion. This marked the largest initial public offering (IPO) since the Queensland government raised $4.1 billion from listing QR National in 2010. The IPO window is firmly open with $8 billion already raised from investors in 2014 on top of $7 billion in 2013, the bulk of which came just before Christmas.

...
Tagged in: IPO
Hits: 3950
0

Whilst the downward trend in commodity prices since 2010 is often interpreted as a sign the commodity boom is over, the overall increase in the volume of minerals being exported gets very little attention in the financial press. Obviously a company's revenues and profits are determined by quantity sold multiplied by price, not just by price alone. Philo Capital view that we are moving into stage three of the mining boom, which will be dominated by the high volume low cost producers. Over the last week Australian listed resource and energy companies have all reported their production results. In an environment of falling prices, the companies that are able to deliver higher volumes from their assets at lower costs will be the winners. In this piece we are going to look at the winners and laggards and the themes coming out of the production reports released over the past seven days.

...
Hits: 1185
0

In every investment magazine and the business section of every weekend paper you will see a list of hot stock picks from fund managers, inevitably these picks won't represent the fund manager's top new ideas, but rather five large positions in the funds that they manage. You will never see the fund manager's recently uncovered gems in print, as the managers will be busily building these positions in their portfolios and certainly don't want other investors driving up the price! In the interests of disclosure I have been guilty of doing this myself. In this piece, I am not going to run through our top investment ideas, but rather take a step back and look at what actually makes a company attractive investment.

...
Tagged in: Australian Equities
Hits: 1366

Casual readers of the financial press may have the impression that 2014 has seen a large degree of variation in the returns delivered to investors by Australian equities. Contrary to the headlines which have reported the end of the mining boom, budget crises and faltering domestic economy, if you look at the Australian market by industry sectors, 2014 has actually seen a historically low level of dispersion. As we are currently at just over the half-way mark of 2014, in this piece we are going to look at what is going on in Australian equities in this very benign start to 2014.

...
Hits: 1297
0

To equity fund managers term deposits (TDs) are often seen as quite boring, lacking the growth potential in both capital and income that shares offer, but also giving investors none of the unpleasant downside variability in income and capital that can come from owning shares. The investor simply receives an agreed return paid for the life of the deposit, which is then returned at the end of the term.

...
Hits: 1533

Since China started to have a greater impact on the global economy and indeed the companies listed on the ASX, investors are assailed with the contradictory extreme viewpoints that either "China is going to take over the world" (supposedly good for Australia) or that "China is a house of cards that will soon fall in a heap" (supposedly bad for Australian miners). This argument has only intensified in 2014 with a weakening in the iron ore price. We view that these two outcomes are simplistic and that the truth lies somewhere in between these two viewpoints. Earlier this week Philo Research returned from an extensive trip around China meeting with companies, state owned enterprises (SOEs) and government in the provinces of Beijing, Hebei and Shandong in the north, Hunan in the central and Jiangsu/Shanghai on the coast. The purpose of the visit was to gauge the future direction of the Chinese economy and to provide a view on the outlook for Australian companies whose profits are linked to China. In this piece we will look at the key messages coming out of China for Australian investors.

...
Hits: 1376

Megaprojects capture people's imaginations. From the ancient Pyramids of Giza, to the Great Wall of China to the more modern Panama Canal and 163 floor Burj Khalifa, mankind has always sought to push the limits of engineering and be the one to build the next 'biggest thing'. While Origin Energy's APLNG project might not carry the historic or aesthetic appeals of more famous megaprojects, it remains worthy of the moniker.

...
Hits: 2354
0

Over the last two days Woodside Petroleum's management have been in Sydney conducting their annual investor briefing. In addition to having the opportunity to meet operational management, research has also had the chance to speak with the CEO and CFO about the future direction of the company. When a company like Woodside is delivering both record hydrocarbons production and solid returns for our investors, these meetings can be pretty affable affairs commending management for their efforts and discussing a few points about their operations and the competitive environment. However these meetings have been a little different, as Woodside is sitting on a pile of cash and is currently pondering what to do with it. We currently expect Woodside to have zero net debt by the end of 2014 which is very unusual for a company with a market capitalisation of $34 billion! In this note we are going to look at the questions that Woodside's board face with the billions of shareholders' funds burning a hole in their back pocket. Historically we have observed that far too many companies have frittered away their excess cash on questionable acquisitions designed to buy growth.

...
Hits: 6165
0

Over the last fortnight the four major banks have reported earnings of almost $13 billion dollars which resulted in some commentary in the press about banks being too profitable. Similarly one of the minor political parties suggested last week that the way to solve Australia's deficit is to tax the miners more. Whilst the banks and miners generate large profits as companies, what is ignored in much of the debate is that these profits have to be shared amongst millions of individual shareholders; for example Westpac has 3.1 billion shares outstanding. In this piece we are going to look at measures of corporate profitability for large Australian listed companies.

...
Hits: 1357
0

Over the last fortnight investors have been digesting multi-billion dollar profit results for the major trading banks, wading through voluminous investor discussion packs whilst listening to bank CEOs and CFOs report their profit results. Indeed Westpac offered investors over 200 detailed charts in their 137 page investor presentation!

...
Hits: 1311
0

In forecasting the future, especially the future direction of the equity markets, one prediction is sure to come true: that all predictions will be wrong.  As part of the quarterly asset allocation process, the Philo Listed Research team provides a view of how we expect the Australian equity markets to perform over the coming year. This does not involve peering into a crystal ball or gazing at tea leaves or chicken entrails, but rather is derived from analysing the ASX on a "bottom up" or stock by stock basis.  Whilst recognising the limitations of all forecasts, in this week's piece we are going to run through our current view on the returns we expect the market to provide investors over the next 12 months.

...
Hits: 1440
0

During the week portfolio stock BHP confirmed that they were looking at simplifying their portfolio and investigating a demerger of the company's aluminium, nickel and manganese businesses. Similarly former portfolio company United Group has been in the press discussing the sale of its painstakingly acquired property services business to private equity. In the last six months we have also seen Amcor demerge its Australian packaging assets (Orora) and Brambles demerged its document storage business Recall after an unsuccessful attempted trade sale.

...
Hits: 1522
0

Managing a diversified equity portfolio is sometimes similar to being a farmer in that at any stage you are likely to be "harvesting" or selling good stocks that are now over-valued and "planting" or buying companies that appear undervalued.

...
Hits: 1784
0

Over the last few weeks Philo Research have been busy meeting with the management teams of the trusts in the Core Property Portfolio and doing a few tours of some of the assets owned by the portfolio. The highlight of these tours was the top floor of Deutsche Bank Place on Phillip Street; very salubrious office space with great views over the Botanical Gardens and down the harbour at only $1,450 per m² per annum! If anyone needs some flashy office space, we will be delighted to put them in touch with the building's leasing manager. In this note we will look at what we have learned from the recently concluded reporting season, our positioning in the various property sectors and the strategy being used to manage the Core Property Portfolio.

...
Hits: 1914
0

A key part of the investment process is that the Philo Research team meet with the management teams of the portfolio companies at least once every six months. Generally we seek to meet with management teams just after they have released their semi-annual profit results and at other times during the year when we have specific issues or concerns that we feel need to be addressed. The content and tone of these meetings varies widely depending on the nature of the company and how far the results that the management team has delivered deviates from our expectations. The Philo Research team have been very busy over the month meeting with management teams from huge (BHP) to small (Investa Office Fund).  In this piece we are looking to shed some light into the role that these meetings play in the investment process. As the portfolio has had no unpleasant surprises this month, these meetings were all pretty cordial.

...
Hits: 1628
0

During the months of February and August the majority of Australian listed companies reveal their profit results and most provide guidance as to how they expect their businesses to perform in the upcoming year. As the financial noise reaches a crescendo during these months, in this note we are going to run through the key themes we have seen so far after 65% of companies have reported their results.

...
Hits: 1463
0

During the months of February and August the majority of Australian listed companies reveal their profit results. Many companies also provide guidance as to how they expect to perform in the upcoming year. This can be a stressful time for a fund manager. When companies reveal unpleasant surprises the company’s stock price tends to get sold down hard. Alternatively, it can be very pleasant when the company benefits from factors that were behind the investment case for originally owning their shares. In this piece we are going to go through how Philo Research approaches each day during reporting season and relate our actions yesterday when portfolio companies Telstra, GPT, Transurban and Rio Tinto reported their results.

...
Hits: 1995

Last week investors in Treasury Wine Estates (which we don't own), a global wine company with iconic brands such as Penfolds and Wolf Blass faced a 20% fall in the company's share price after the company downgraded estimates for future earnings. In this piece we are going to look at the mechanisms we use to filter out companies (including Treasury Wine) that are more likely to have a higher chance of issues in the future.

...
Hits: 1885

A falling Australian dollar is often presented in the media as a negative event, raising the cost of purchases on Amazon, holidays in Europe and indeed sometimes as a declining vote of confidence in Australia by the rest of the world. Over 2013 the Australian dollar has fallen against all major currencies (except for the Yen and the Rupiah), most notably by 14% against the USD. Whilst this move is negative for consumers wanting to buy hand-made French road bikes, the fall benefits our investors, as both our asset allocation (un-hedged International equities) and Australian equity portfolio construction decisions have been geared towards a falling AUD.

...
Hits: 1503
0

Investors buy shares or small portions of a company with the notion that at some stage in the future others will view the intrinsic value of the company more highly than it is today. This increase in the value of a company can either come gradually via the share market or suddenly via another company launching a takeover. Currently in the Core Property Portfolio (CPP) we are fortunate to have both GPT and a consortium made up of Dexus (DXS) and the Canada Pension Plan (CPPIB) in a bidding war for our holding in Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA).

...
Hits: 3299
0

Earlier this week Westfield Group (WDC) and Westfield Retail Trust (WRT) announced a proposal whereby their combined assets will be restructured along geographical lines.  Westfield's Australian/NZ businesses will be held in a newly formed entity to be known as Scentre Group and their US and UK assets, including Westfield World Trade Center in New York, Century City in Los Angeles and Westfield London will be retained in WDC - renamed as Westfield Corporation. The investment thesis behind this quite costly move is that the market will rate the two separate companies more highly as they will be more focused.

...
Hits: 3296
0

The Listed Securities team at Philo Capital are constantly reviewing investments in the hunt to deliver investment returns. In this piece we are going to run through the steps taken in analysing Echo Entertainment (EGP) from a nascent idea to a concrete view on whether the security should be added to the portfolio. EGP is an Australian casino operator that includes The Star Casino in Sydney, Treasury Casino in Brisbane and Jupiter's on the Gold Coast.

...
Hits: 2583
0

Non-aligned financial planning firms contemplating introduction of vertical integration strategies have a once in a generation opportunity to simultaneously delight clients, shareholders and staff – but it is an opportunity that can be missed if the wrong options are taken.  In this brief article we identify the key options and provide a link to a more detailed paper for those that may be interested. 

...
Hits: 6803

The entertainment industry paints a glamous picture of the exciting world of trading securities, full of shouting, villans, greed and coloured shirts with white cuffs and collars. However  the reality is far more measured, quieter and with fewer cigars and braces. In this piece we are looking to give some insight into how we trade the portfolios on a daily basis. 

...
Hits: 3664

Currently investors are being deluged by new IPOs (initial public offerings), as the sponsoring investment banks and their predominantly private equity owners look to capitalise on the current strength of the Australian equity market and have these placements done before Christmas. As every day seems to bring a new thick IPO prospectus (and sometimes three!) and glowing broker research on the new company about to be floated, this week’s piece is going to look at the hot topic of the moment: IPOs!

...
Hits: 4023

This week marked the end of the reporting season for Australia’s banks with the four major banks delivering a combined $27.3B in profit for the 2013 financial year. In this piece we are going to look at the common themes coming out of the results and hand out our reporting season awards.

...
Hits: 1653

The media, sections of the market and the companies themselves pay close attention to how analysts at the large investment banks rate individual companies, with “Buy” calls greeted with cheers, “Sell” calls causing concern and “Neutral” calls resulting in ambivalence. Earlier this week a senior financial planner asked me how closely we, as portfolio managers, follow the stock calls offered by analysts at investment banks. In this piece we are going to run through the strengths and weaknesses of stockbrokers and how we as investors can best utilise their work to improve portfolio returns. 

...
Hits: 1717

During the week the US Indices (S&P500 and the Dow Jones) hit record all-time highs and the ASX 200 marked a 71% recovery since the dark days of March 2009. Accompanying these moves have been investing magazines with breathless cover articles like "Double your Money" and "Summer Scorchers: Five Red Hot Momentum Plays", and the three separate IPOs that landed on my desk yesterday. Whilst the aim of all equity investors is to seek gains from the market, in this piece we are going to look at seven reasons that can cause both individual and institutional investors to lose money in the market.

...
Hits: 2917
0

Term deposits (TD) are often considered relatively straightforward investments that investors believe they can effectively manage on their own.  For most people, this is choosing the highest rate from a bank they are comfortable with. Unlike stocks, the face value of a TD does not change during the life of the deposit, as there is no 'mark-to-market' or revaluations unlike other fixed income securities like bonds which trade on markets. As we saw during the GFC, even high-grade fixed income securities can experience high price volatility. TDs experience no such observable volatility. This encourages investors to treat them as passive 'set and forget' investments.

...
Hits: 1387
0

Over the period 2004 to 2007 when China began to seriously compete with Japan and South Korea for Australia’s minerals, a successful investment strategy was either to own companies with vague plans to mine undeveloped deposits or indeed high cost miners that were previously pretty marginal. Furthermore the commodity itself did not seem to matter, as China was seen to want everything Australia could dig out of the ground.  This time has clearly passed and in this piece we are going to look at what minerals are in demand to feed the Dragon and how the Core Equity Portfolio is positioned.

...
Hits: 1612

Last night in Chicago the CEO of US agricultural company Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) said that she expects that the company's $3.2 billion dollar takeover of Australian grain handler GrainCorp will be completed by the end of 2013. This implies that ADM expects the Foreign Investment Review Board will approve the deal; after it had been held up by both the election and opposition from the National Party. In this note we look at the extent to which opportunities for investors to get exposure to listed agricultural companies has been diminished by recent takeovers and the breath of foreign interest in ASX-listed agricultural companies.

...
Hits: 1926
0

Probably the biggest question that any Australian equity fund manager faces is what weight in a portfolio to allocate to the banks. Over the past few years, the Australian banking sector has grown to represent 32% of the ASX100 on the back of record bank profits, weakness in other sectors and a chase for yield by investors globally as monetary policy settings across Europe, Japan and the US have pushed interest rates to multi-century lows. All of this has contributed to all 4 of the Australian banks now being in the top 15 banks globally by market capitalization.

...
Hits: 2230

When you look at the collection of stocks in any portfolio; it is statistically improbable that all the stocks in any portfolio at one point in time will be outperforming the benchmark. In the Core Equity Portfolio we focus on buying quality companies stocks that we believe are undervalued by the market. Consequently we accept that some stocks we own may underperform for a time, before a catalyst occurs that causes the stock to re-rate upwards. Whilst investors should primarily focus on their overall portfolio return (+15.1% in 2013!), in this piece we are going to run through the securities that are performing well in 2013 and those that are lagging.

...
Hits: 2054
0

Every day investors face a range of news and noise, with market commentators and stockbrokers telling you to buy this stock and sell that. Normally this is a mass of well-crafted advice; all designed to encourage the investor to turn over their portfolio. Increased trading is profitable for stockbrokers, but normally less so investors. In order to focus our research efforts, we have developed a few tools in Philo Capital Research Department designed to help us block out the incessant chatter of the market and focus on ideas that can make our investors money. In this note, we are looking to give our investors some insight into the work that is done on their portfolios every morning.

...
Hits: 1876
0

During the months of February and August the majority of Australian listed companies reveal their profit results and mostly give us guidance as to how they expect their businesses to perform in the upcoming year. This can be a stressful time as when companies open up their financial closets and reveal unexpected unpleasant surprises, the company's share price tends to get sold down hard. In this note we are going to run through the key themes we have seen so far after 90% of companies have reported their results.

...
Hits: 1479
0

This week has been a very eventful one for listed property.  We have also been busy meeting with a few companies and a global commercial leasing agent to test our thoughts on how the portfolio should be positioned. In this note we will look at our positioning in the various property sectors,  along with the strategy being used to manage the portfolio.

...
Hits: 1485
0

As our largest sector tilt in the portfolio and the biggest sector in the ASX after the banks, we spend a large amount of time looking at the resources sector and testing our assumptions. Indeed over the last year, research has travelled to both the hot and dusty mines of the Pilbara and to the gritty Dickensian steel mills of North and Western China. In the press there has been much written about the end of the mining boom, and whilst we see that the boom days are over where marginal mines were making supernormal profits, we don't see that the wholesale dumping of mining stocks is the right move for investors.

...
Hits: 1509
0

As investors we allocate our capital to superior companies, with the expectation that we will be rewarded by higher dividends and capital returns when that capital is invested sucessfully.  Furthermore when assessing management teams, one of the key factors that we look at is their willingness to return excess capital to shareholders, rather than hold onto it. Often management finds this excess cash burning a hole in their pockets and listens to the siren calls of investment bankers pitching acquisition ideas to absorb cash on their "lazy" balance sheets.

...
Hits: 1468
0

Over the last five years one of most unpleasant feelings for an analyst or fund manager is when a portfolio company posts a notice on the ASX of a "Trading Update". Since 2008 this has almost always been a downgrade of a company's expected profits which then results in a sharp price fall, gnashing of teeth and tears from the analyst responsible for the stock. In recent memory the only profit upgrade we have seen was CSL's lift in November last year, so when I see "Trading Update", I expect the worst.

...
Hits: 1634
0

In recent times News Corporation (NWS) has generated a great deal of media intrigue itself. The News of the World scandal, Murdoch's level of control, and more recently the proposal to split the company have ironically been major media stories. In this piece we will run through what the spin out of News Corp will mean for investors.

...
Hits: 1411
0

On a weekly basis Listed Securities fields offers from the stockbroking community for exciting new Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), and large placements from companies seeking to buy other assets or retire debt. As you can probably imagine these offers are couched in the most positive terms and are dressed up to lure investors to part with their capital. The investment banks don't offer us these opportunities from the kindness of their hearts, new security issues are an extremely lucrative fee earner; with the banks earning from 1-5% of the total amount raised! Over the last 18 months in our investible universe (excluding small capitalisation companies), A$30.3B has been raised in the 48 different issues that have been presented to us. Of these 48 issues our Approved Investment Committee has approved only seven. In this piece we are going to run through our hits, misses and fish rejected.

...
Hits: 3787
0

Over the last 5 years we have seen the AUD/USD break significantly away from its post free float (1983) average of 0.75. This move has put significant pressure on a range of businesses from manufacturing, exporters, tourism to retailers. In May 2013 we have seen a steady erosion of the AUD/USD from 1.04 to 0.96. This move has benefited our investors as both our asset allocation (un-hedged International equities) and Australian equity portfolio construction decisions have been geared towards a falling AUD. This piece goes through the winners and losers from a declining AUD along with how we have positioned the Core Equity Portfolio.

...
Hits: 1827
0

Reporting season for the Australian banks (excluding CBA who have a June year end) has just finished and the following themes stood out to us:

...
Hits: 1350
0

WBC released its financial results for the first half of the 2013 financial year today. The major news was a special dividend for shareholders.

...
Hits: 1768
0

ANZ released its financial results for the 1st half of the 2013 financial year today and as a shareholder there was a lot to like about this result.

...
Hits: 1681
0
Powered by EasyBlog for Joomla!

Privacy Statement 

Background

We may hold personal information about you, principally because you are a client of ours or give us information through this website. Personal information means information we hold about you from which your identity is either apparent or can be reasonably determined.

We respect your rights to privacy concerning your personal information which we hold. Our privacy policy is consistent with Australia's legal requirements.

Things change

If you think our records about you might be wrong or out of date - particularly your name, address, phone, email address or financial adviser - it’s important that you contact us and they will be corrected free of charge. 

Why is personal information collected?

Broadly, we use personal information you provide only for purposes consistent with the reason you provided it, or for a related purpose, for example to:

  • Subscribe to research or another service using this website;
  • Contact you regarding our services ~ you can opt out of these communications of course, just contact us;
  • Comply with legal obligations such as identifying you if you become a client; and
  • Administer your account (should you be a client).

If you do not provide us with the information which we ask for, we (or others) may not be able to provide you with some or all of the services available through us. 

How we collect

Most information is collected when you become a client of one of the financial services which we make available, often a managed discretionary account. But there may be other ways we collect personal information such as through contact with you and from this website and your advisers. We will collect personal information from you only by lawful and fair means and not in an unreasonably intrusive way.

What we collect

The kinds of personal information collected can include the following:

  • Name, gender and date of birth;
  • Contact details;
  • Bank account details;
  • Tax file number;
  • Any access and use details for this website; and
  • Other information you or others for you (for example, your financial adviser) might tell us.

Disclosure of personal information

We will not disclose personal information we hold about you unless:

  • This policy allows or with your other express or implied consent;
  • It is to joint account holders;
  • It is to companies within our group;
  • It is to those who help our business to run;
  • It is in the public interest (for example where a breach of law is committed or suspected, and we consider that disclosure against your rights to confidentiality is justified);
  • We consider that law requires disclosure, or a regulator requests (for example, to various government departments and agencies such as the Australian Taxation Office, CentreLink, the Child Support Agency, or disclosure to courts under subpoena or to ASIC or AUSTRAC if asked);
  • We consider someone relevant to you needs the information, for example your financial adviser or someone who we have no reason to doubt is acting for you; or
  • It is to administer your account.

What about security?

We are committed to ensuring that your personal information is kept secure. We have a number of physical access and technology policies and procedures in place designed to provide a robust security environment. No personal data is stored on our web site.

In those instances where we secure your personal information in transit to us and on receipt, we use the industry standard encryption software, Secured Socket Layer (SSL) 128 bit encryption. The URL in your browser will change to "HTTPS" instead of "HTTP" when this security feature is invoked. Your browser may also display a lock symbol on its bottom task bar line to indicate this secure transmission is in place. But the internet is not a secure environment and we cannot guarantee the security of information we exchange electronically.

Website use

Our internet server logs certain information which is provided by your browser:

  • The type of browser and operating system you are using;
  • Your Internet Service Provider and top level domain name (for example - .com, .gov, .au, .uk etc);
  • The address of any referring web site (for example - the previous web site you visited); and
  • Your computer's IP (Internet Protocol) address (a number which is unique to the machine through which you are connected to the internet).

We may use cookies to obtain information with regards to web site activity (such as the type of browser used, the number of pages viewed, time of the site and navigation patterns) and to help you use this site when you visit again. This information on its own does not identify an individual but it does provide us with statistics that can help us with design of the web site. You can configure your browser to accept or reject cookies. If you reject all cookies you may not be able to use some or all of our web site.

Telephone services

We may monitor or record telephone calls for training, record or security purposes. If we do so, we will tell you at the time.

Access to personal information

In most circumstances, you have the right to access any personal information we collect and hold about you. In certain circumstances, the law permits us to refuse your request to provide you with access to your personal information, such as when:

  • We reasonably believe that access would pose a serious threat to the life or health of any individual;
  • Giving access would have an unreasonable impact on the privacy of others;
  • The request is frivolous or vexatious;
  • The information relates to a commercially sensitive decision making process;
  • Access would be unlawful; or
  • Giving access may prejudice enforcement activities, a security function or commercial negotiations.

Please contact our Privacy Officer at the address below if you wish to access, update or correct your personal information, or if you have a complaint about how we have handled your details. We have a compliance process for dealing with complaints and we undertake to deal with your complaint as quickly as possible, and to keep you informed of its progress. 

Further information

You can obtain further general information about your privacy rights and privacy law from the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner by:

  • Calling their Privacy Hotline on 1300 363 992; or
  • visiting their web site at www.privacy.gov.au, or
  • by writing to:

The Australian Information Commissioner
GPO Box 5218
Sydney NSW 1042

or

The Australian Information Commissioner
enquiries @ oaic.gov.au 

Changes

We may make changes to information handling and privacy policies and practices and this privacy policy. We will publish important changes on our web site and if necessary update this policy.   

Privacy Officer

Attention: the Privacy Officer
Philo Group

Level 11

37 York Street
Sydney NSW 2000

Tel: 1300 303 323

or send a message on Contact Us page

 

Terms of use 

This website is published by Philo Capital Services Pty Ltd ABN 91 154 859 284 and is operated by Philo Capital Services Limited and other companies that are associates of Philo Capital Services Pty Ltd including Philo Capital Advisers Pty Ltd ABN 70 119 185 974 AFSL 301808  (referred to collectively as the Philo Group).

Using this website is your agreement to these terms as amended from time to time. Please take the time to read them. Contact us if you have any suggestions or complaints.

We do not promise that this website is always up to date, always available or virus or third party cookie free.

We take reasonable care in the maintenance of information on this website. However, to the extent permitted by Australian law, all obligations which might otherwise be implied or imposed on us by law or equity in relation to this website are expressly excluded to the extent permitted by law. Loss arising to you from use of this site is limited to resupply by us of the services. Under no circumstances will we be liable for any special or consequential damages.

We may amend this site or any part of its contents without telling you. You must not modify this site. Contact us if you wish to link to this site. We are not responsible for links to outside this site.

Unless otherwise expressly stated to the contrary, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing personal financial or investment advice. Information provided does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or investment needs.

You should assess whether the information on this website is appropriate to your particular investment objectives, financial situation and investment needs. We recommend you seek financial, legal and taxation advice. You should do this before making an investment decision on the basis of the information on this website.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts included on this website are predictive in character and may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ substantially from the forecasts.

Unless otherwise expressly stated to the contrary, the information on this website is not a recommendation to invest or refrain from investing in any investments, securities or financial products, including those which may be offered by any member of the Philo Group.

This website and all it displays are the property of Philo Capital Holdings Pty Ltd and related entities and are protected by copyright, trade mark and other intellectual property laws. You may reproduce information for your personal use only. We reserve all other rights.

Unless otherwise stated, all figures are in Australian dollars and include GST. Examples used on this website are not exhaustive.

This website is for persons located in, and is designed to meet only the laws of, Australia. This website is not for use by people not located in Australia. It is very likely that it does not comply with all foreign laws. In any dispute arising from this site, New South Wales laws apply. You consent to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of New South Wales.