A new beginning?
Biden is victorious. A new week - and a new era - begins. The sense of relief around the world is palpable. Embedded in that relief is the hope that we might see a less chaotic and more respectful world; that we might draw comfort from seeing decision making in the world’s largest economy proceed in a more logical and predictable fashion. That the USA’s leadership will focus on creating unity rather than division.
The win, and the loss, means a lot of different things to different people. CNN commentator Van Jones shed a tear when asked about Biden’s victory.
“Well, it’s easier to be a parent this morning. It’s easier to be a dad. It's easier to tell your kids character matters. It matters. Telling the truth matters. Being a good person matters."
Jones is an ex-Obama aide, so his politics are clear, but the message is poignant and should be above politics.
Many in America and beyond feared the election could turn violent. Thus far, that has not happened, and it feels like a dangerous moment has been navigated. And yet there were some surprising outcomes from the election that deserve attention. I found the following opinion piece, analysing exit polling results from the New York Times fascinating.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/opinion/election-2020-exit-polls.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Some of the main points:
“A larger percentage of every racial minority voted for Trump this year than in 2016. Among Blacks and Hispanics, this percentage grew among both men and women, although men were more likely to vote for Trump than women.”
“Black people vote overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates. Black women vote more reliably Democratic than Black men — only 3 or 4 percent of Black women voted for the Republican candidate in 2008, 2012 and 2016. However, Donald Trump doubled that number this year, winning 8 percent of Black women’s votes.
Black men on the other hand have been inching away from the Democrats in recent elections and continued that drift in this election. In 2008, 5 percent of Black men voted for John McCain; in 2012, 11 percent voted for Mitt Romney; in 2016, 13 percent voted for Trump; and, this year 18 percent voted for Trump.”
“Not only did a majority of white men vote for Trump, so did a majority of white women.”
“The percentage of L.G.B.T. people voting for Trump doubled from 2016, moving from 14 percent to 28 percent.”
And this doozy from America’s highly regarded NPR National Public Radio[1],
“Of the 100 counties with the highest COVID-19 death rates per capita, 68 had a higher proportion of votes cast for Trump this cycle than they did in 2016. This includes both Republican-leaning counties and counties that supported Joe Biden.”
These results seem counter intuitive. Trump increased his vote amongst the very people you might expect to have the biggest issue with his policies and his conduct. What do these results suggest?
The author of the New York Times article, Charles M Blow, himself a black man, saw it this way,
“All of this to me points to the power of the white patriarchy and the coattail it has of those who depend on it or aspire to it. It reaches across gender and sexual orientation and even race. Trump’s brash, privileged chest thumping and alpha-male dismissiveness and in-your-face rudeness are aspirational to some men and appealing to some women. Some people who have historically been oppressed will stand with the oppressors, and will aspire to power by proximity.”
He got criticism from some readers for this, with most common objection being that people are simply voting for what they perceive to be their economic self-interest, which is more important to them that questions of race.
Seeking to explain the growth in support for Trump in areas hardest hit by COVID-19 deaths, NPR’s article included this quote:
"What we've seen is over time that the biggest determinant of people's worries about COVID-19 and their attitudes about COVID-19 is not where they live or the COVID-19 deaths in their area, but it is their partisanship," says Shana Gadarian, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University who has been surveying voters through the campaign. "We know partisanship matters a great deal for people's vote choice."
Crudely paraphrased, she seems to be saying that once someone identifies as the supporter of a particular party, they take a lot of shifting.
Others have taken a different approach to explain the Trump phenomenon. The Sydney Morning Herald reported on a book by psychology professor Bob Altemeyer and former Nixon administration lawyer John Dean. Evidently they argue for a “striking correlation between support for Trump and authoritarian tendencies” They are reported as saying that Trump’s most passionate supporters “are submissive, fearful and longing for a mighty leader who will protect them from life's threats. They divide the world into friend and foe, with the latter greatly outnumbering the former.”
Why does all this matter? Isn’t it possible that the individuals concerned examined Trump’s policies and simply liked them better than Biden’s? This would do doubt be the response of many Trump supporters. But there are still features of the Trump phenomenon that seem well outside the normal range of human / political behaviour:
The astonishing rate at which Trump lies. This level of deceitfulness would once have been a threshold issue that would preclude a person from public office. How does this not apply to Trump?
Trump’s sewing of distrust of not just politicians, but also most instruments of government whether that be the FBI, the Federal Reserve or his own COVID task force. I cannot recall anything like it.
The acquiescence of the Republican Party to Trump and their abject failure to hold him to account for abuses of his position. (All but an honourable few seemed to lose their moral compass. How does one man dominate a political party so comprehensively?)
That many people of faith have continued to support Trump notwithstanding his personal behaviour has been antithetical to values they presumably hold dear.
People putting their lives at risk to turn up to Trump rallies without masks – and bringing their children. A group of Stanford University researchers has estimated that 700 deaths have or will result from the rallies and that this will include subsequent infections of people that did not attend.[2]
The relative lack of electoral consequence for Trump for material failings of responsibility and character (Yes, he lost the election, but he also increased his vote)
The apparent preference of many Trump supporters to believe unsubstantiated conspiracy theories over the documented conclusions from government enquiries and responsible media.
These behaviours are suggestive of deep tribalism or blind allegiance that is not impacted by truth, ethics, merit, logic, or science. (Note that the list did not include self-interest.) The Trump presidency took America into uncharted territory where previous norms about public conduct not only did not apply, but appeared to be under attack. That is and should be terrifying for anyone who wants to live in a civil and fair society - regardless of whether they identify as left or right politically. How does this phenomenon arise? Is tolerance of it derived from economic disadvantage and economic self-interest or are there psychological factors at play as well?
For better or worse, the United States of America is the world’s largest economy and supposed leader of the free world. The health of their democracy matters to every person on the planet. So how does a democracy function and progress if people don’t truly engage in a competition of ideas and hold their leaders fully accountable for their actions? Why did we not see a more thorough repudiation of Trump’s conduct, even from those who would normally vote Republican? What does this mean for the future functioning of democracies the world over?
Donald Trump famously boasted in 2016 that “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.” Unfortunately, that would seem to be true. In fact, tens of thousands of people are dead who might not be if he had been more diligent, but he increased his vote.
The world has dodged a bullet this time around, but some of the most important work of American academia and public policy institutions for the next few years will be to understand the phenomenon of Trumpism and why this election was such a near run thing. At the same time, Joe Biden has promised to help restore the soul of America. All power to him – some soul searching, reflection and rejuvenation would seem to be in order.
[1] https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/06/930897912/many-places-hard-hit-by-covid-19-leaned-more-toward-trump-in-2020-than-2016
[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3722299